Cross-platform pricing, signals, and community context.
Calculate the expected value, edge, and optimal bet sizing for prediction market positions.
This bet has negative expected value based on your probability estimate.
vs market price
of bankroll
Total: $200.00
Your full stake
Expected Value (EV) tells you the average profit or loss per bet if you made this bet many times. Positive EV means you have an edge over the market.
Kelly Criterion suggests what percentage of your bankroll to bet based on your edge. Most traders use half or quarter Kelly for safety.
Your Edge is the difference between your probability estimate and the market's implied probability. A positive edge means you think the market is mispriced.